July 2026 Newsletter:

Just like that, we’re already halfway through the year. As the saying goes… time flies when there's a fresh geopolitical headline every morning.

It was a mixed month for markets as economic data continued to send conflicting signals. The labor market added more jobs than expected, offering a bright spot. However, inflation ticked higher for a third straight month, reaching its highest level since April 2023. Consumer sentiment saw a slight rebound from its record low as gas prices moderated, but confidence remains near historically low levels.

The AI-driven tech rally took a bit of a breather in June, giving other segments of the market some room to shine. Smaller companies led the way with the CRSP US Small Cap Index climbing 3.50%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.71%. The Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 lagged behind, slipping 0.12% and 0.95% respectively, as some of the year's biggest tech winners cooled off. As a whole, value outpaced growth as a style for the month.

International markets were relatively quiet, with developed international stocks and emerging markets each dipping 0.20%. While modest, the pullback was broadly in line with the tone seen across US markets.

Interest rates found more stable footing after a volatile stretch, with the 10-year Treasury yield essentially flat, dipping from 4.45% to 4.44%. This helped aggregate US bonds edge higher, posting a gain of 0.24%. The Fed held rates steady at its June meeting, but there’s still some uncertainty regarding the the path forward. Expectations have shifted in recent months, with markets now leaning more toward the possibility of a rate hike later this year rather than the cuts many had anticipated earlier on.

As we close the books on the first half of 2026, it's been clear markets don’t follow a straight line, and the back half may bring its own share of twists and turns. Shifting sector leadership, sticky inflation, and evolving rate expectations are all reminders that conditions can change quickly. Staying anchored to a well-diversified, long-term investment strategy remains the best way to navigate whatever the back half of the year has in store.

Market Health Indicator:

The Market Health Indicator (MHI) measures market health on a scale of 0 - 100, analyzing various market segments such as economics, technicals, and volatility. Higher scores indicate healthier market conditions.

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The information presented is not investment advice - it is for educational purposes only and is not an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any securities or investment advisory services. Investments involve risk and are not guaranteed. Be sure to consult with a qualified financial adviser when making investment decisions.